Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker and Gen. Wesley Clark, a former NATO supreme commander. But the premise for that to be a viable option where we can have a genuine negotiation means that the Russians want to come to the table. He iswe told him early in this war we, the West and certainly the United States, in our statements we said were going tonot going to go to nuclear war, were not going to escalate to World War III. Tune in for a wide-ranging discussion on Russia and Ukraines military options; the respective roles of Europe, the United States, and China; and more. It wont. This years meeting is the first since the end of zero-COVID restrictions; itsalso an opportunity to get an inside look into the Chineseleaderships fears and priorities. So unused to being challenged, the United States has become so filled with anxiety over China that sober responses are becoming nearly impossible. By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. Lets start with that. Invasion of Iraq, Black Sea Grain Initiative, and More. Its their territory. And they have hundreds and hundreds of grain ships stacked up now as theyre waiting for their inspections for the Russians to allow them to move out through the Black Sea. And I think the question to my mindand I think well get to this conversationis it seems to me that our policy right now is calibrated to primarily avoid one thing, and that is potential escalation. Delivered Thursday. Were not sure where this will go yet. NATO has expanded its presence along the eastern flank tremendously over the lastcertainly, and it possibly could get bigger. But, on the other hand, Ukraine, as you just discussed, is going to have probably the largest army in Europe, Poland not far behind. Europe, I think, were seeing steadiness, but how long is that going to last? Beyond the headlines, what can the world expect from the convening? So, again, I dont understand quite why thewe identify Crimea as the fulcrumwe get it back, and then Ukraine will be safe from Russia, we dont get it back, Ukraine is a basket case. Heading into a possible reelection year, FPs reporters will discuss if and how Biden can juggle these substantial foreign-policy issuesand how the campaign trail might change things. The signatories recognize the U.S. government for the actions it has taken so far, including imposing sanctions on Russia, supplying Ukraine with significant military aid and supporting the expansion of NATO to include Sweden and Finland. It is enshrined in Ukraines constitution. What we seek is the deployment of American and NATO aircraft not in search of confrontation with Russia but to avert and deter Russian bombardment that would result in massive loss of Ukrainian lives. So how the war ends is a very broad and I think very controversial subject, and we have three people who will help us to examine the possibilities and also the pitfalls of that: General Philip Breedlove, whom we can see on the screenhe is virtualthere joining us; and Charlie Kupchan, right here; and Alina Polyakova. DOUGHERTY: General Breedlove, you know, were back to that issue of Crimea and some of the other territoriesthe Donbas, certainly. Explore the benefits included in your subscription. The collision did not happen, actually, during the intercept. Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. by No one wants direct confrontation with Russia, but helping Ukraine to defend its land and freedom is in the Wests security interest, the experts said. The U.S. military was mired in a failing war in Vietnam partly due to the belief that calling it quits might induce the Soviet leadership to test American resolve in Europe, encourage adversaries around the world, and undermine U.S. alliances in Asia. In short, every region is connected and every decision the United States makes will have global ramifications. Join the conversation on this and other recent Foreign Policy articles when you subscribe now. In fact, what they keep doing is what they did just yesterday, which is these little pokes and provocations to see how the West is going to respond, and based on our response they understand how far they can go. We failed them. A group of foreign policy experts are calling for a limited no-fly zone over Ukraine that would protect established safe corridors for those evacuating the country and deter Russian bombardment to protect civilians. In short, what the U.S. government may or may not do in one region of the world tells us next to nothing about what it might do in another. And if we give them the ability to strike deeply into the sanctuary that the West has created for them in Belarus, Russia, Crimea, and the northern Black Sea, if we give them the ability to strike into those areas, I think the war will fast become untenable for Russia. United States POLYAKOVA: It doesnt get rid of Russia, but if we see a defeata clean, clear military defeat for Russia, that will send a very clear signal to the rest of the world. The collapse of SVB is a reminder that the fastest way for the United States to cede ground in the present era of great power competition is to debase its financial system and relinquish its global financial leadership position. The word NATO came up. As the war drags on in the Donetsk region, military experts are gaming out what a prolonged conflict might look like. Ravi Agrawal is the editor in chief of Foreign Policy, the host of FP Live, and a regular world affairs analyst on TV and radio. Delivered Monday-Friday. This week marks exactly one year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. Can U.S. President Joe Biden really support Ukraine against Russia for as long as it takes, as he has pledged? The empty seat for Ukraine's foreign minister is shown before a NATO foreign ministers meeting on Dec. 1, 2021, in Riga, Latvia. Thank you. But I think what weve set ourselves up for with this current policy unless something changes is a much greater, potentially more dangerous outcome, which is protraction, because the longer this war goes on, you ask any Ukrainian and they will say the higher the chances of us losing because the Russians will double down, theyll rebuild, theyll throw more people at this. Heading into a possible reelection year, FPs reporters will discuss if and how Biden can juggle these substantial foreign-policy issuesand how the campaign trail might change things. Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt traced Putins decision to invade Ukraine to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and opined that the Kremlin took note of Washingtons impatience and lack of staying power. I mean, I think that the positions of the Russians and the positions of the Ukrainians obviously dont overlap. There was a boiling or low-grade conflict in Donbas. A year after Russias invasion, Ukraine is suffering a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Explore the benefits included in your subscription. Gints Ivuskans/AFP via Getty Images January 31, 2022 One year after the invasion began, heres what they have achieved and where critics say theyve fallen short. Ariel, do you want to jump in here? Your guide to the most important world stories of the day. Russian President Vladimir Putin, once thought of as a master strategist and savvy opportunist, has exposed himself as a mere mortal whose obsession with personal glory has both degraded his countrys geopolitical positionto take one example, NATO will soon have two additional members, one of which, Finland, shares a long border with Russiaand harmed its future prospects. February 23, 2023 BREEDLOVE: OK. Great. Unfortunately, the United States has a tragic history of doing precisely that. Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on FPs. Xi Jinpings signature foreign policy is a shadow of its former self.. Any number of examples in a Middle Eastern context where military defeat, decisive military defeat, has not ended conflict. POLYAKOVA: Well, exactly what General Breedlove said, I think, is weve seen the evidence for that statement that Ukraines viability in the long term is a hundred percent dependent on the outcome of the battle thats happening today. February 13, 2023 It seems there has been momentum from the alliance to get Ukraine more weapons. Theyll also talk about the budget and what it reveals about the administrations foreign-policy agenda. Hawley in back-and-forth with local reporter: Just want to make sure Republicans seek to flip the script on Social Security. And to my mind, the most optimum scenario not just for Ukraine but for the United States and the future of our global leadership, including ramifications and consequences in the Indo-Pacific, is a decisive military win for Ukraine. In the meantime, the Russians are rebuilding their military. Such a letter, signed by five foreign ministers representing a cross section of views within the European Union, should worry Kyiv. Agrawal is the author of, India Connected: How the Smartphone Is Transforming the Worlds Largest Democracy. Join FPsRavi Agrawalin conversation with a panel of China experts as they decipher the news from Beijing:Ryan Hassis the former China director at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,Zongyuan Zoe Liuis an FP columnist and fellow for international political economy at the Council on Foreign Relations, andJames Palmeris a deputy editor atForeign Policyand the author of the magazinesChina Briefnewsletter. One, the onlythe only way were going to have a Europe that is secure is if we have a Ukraine that is secure. Theyre not on board with this war. FPs Ravi Agrawal will sit down with retired four-star U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, who led U.S. forces in Europe and served as NATOs supreme allied commander Europe from 2013 to 2016. And with winter coming to an end, experts are now looking at potential outcomes to what could become a prolonged conflict. by Zongyuan Zoe Liu This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Congressional support for this aid has largely been bipartisan and wide-rShow moreanging, butRon DeSantis and other leading Republicansare beginning to question whether the United States is prepared to keep it up. And they have shown that they are ready to do that. I dont know that its going to last with the Republican in control of the House. KUPCHAN: Let me just pick up on Steves question, if I could, because Im uncomfortable with the dichotomy that seems to be being put out here, that, you know, if we get back to Ukraines borders and we teach Russia a lesson, then theyre not going to do this again. That doesnt just strike me as the way the world works. The campaign is led by ROBERT MCCONNELL, co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation. November 4, 2022 Is the Biden administrations China policy too hawkish? Tune in for a wide-ranging discussion on Russia and Ukraines military options; the respective roles of Europe, the United States, and China; and more. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a discussion with James Stavridis, a retired four-star U.S. Navy admiral and NATO supreme allied commander. So this is very much a decisive year. Xi will also ponder whether the benefits of reunifying Taiwan with the Chinese mainland are worth the inevitable economic consequences associated with such a war; after all, Chinas future as a great power, as well as the Chinese Communist Partys legitimacy, depends on sustaining its trading relationships and economic success. Top weaponization subcommittee Democrat: Jim Jordan not an honest Zuckerberg grilled at staff meeting after Meta layoff announcement, How an algae bloom could put Floridas spring break at risk. They are targeting grain silos. The wars legacy is 20 years of broken hopes and dreams. What I think needs to be corrected about history is that the West is not going to stand by for a former, or maybe still, world superpower using its military to cross internationally recognized borders and defeat, and seize, and occupy the lands of its neighbors. BREEDLOVE: So let me answer by making two points. The Presidents Inbox. So, General Breedlove, getting back to you, do you agree that the military result will define the resolution of this conflict? A monthly digest of the top articles read by FP subscribers. Delivered Friday. How Much Aid Has the U.S. But how far do you think that the Ukrainians should go, with the help of Western weaponry, in taking back territory? The Ukrainian army's gritty resistance continues to surpass the expectations of military analysts in the . FP Live: Saudi-Iranian Dtente Is a Wake-Up Call for America, Putin Wanted by ICC Over Alleged War Crimes. The Russians are mining agricultural fields. So I think we do need to acknowledge the aggressor here. We saw that demonstrated here recently. Heading into a possible reelection year, FPs reporters will discuss if and how Biden can juggle these substantial foreign-policy issuesand how the campaign trail might change things. That theres no such thing as a frozen conflict. If weif we remove our support to Ukraine, Ukraine will lose and Russia will set the terms for peace. Join FPsRavi Agrawalin conversation with a panel of China experts as they decipher the news from Beijing:Ryan Hassis the former China director at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,Zongyuan Zoe Liuis an FP columnist and fellow for international political economy at the Council on Foreign Relations, andJames Palmeris a deputy editor atForeign Policyand the author of the magazinesChina Briefnewsletter. Experts discuss the U.S. policy options available in Ukraine and how the current military situation on the ground affects what the United States should do next to achieve its goal in the region. KUPCHAN: Trudy, the rump Ukraine, if you will, that existed after 2014 was a viable country. I think that is in our future, and we have to now consider those security arrangements which might inoculate Ukraine from this mischievousness. So this is, like, just skipping, you know, nine years of that is just misrepresentation of reality. The U.S. Army plans to eventually increase its orders to 90,000 shells per month, that is, supplying about 12 days of Ukraine-level fighting per month. Can Ukraine Win a Protracted War? This is an ongoing list of CERES experts' opinions on the Ukraine-Russia . You know, having a very, very aggressive approach to sanctions violation, really putting pressure on Western firms, 90 percent of which by some estimates have not ceased their operations in Russia, this is where I think the conversation needs to go. So much like my kids and my grandkids, if you allow bad behavior to stand, or if you reward bad behavior, youre going to get more bad behavior, and Mr. Putin will be back again. More on this topic. There were violations by the Russian side, some by the Ukrainian side as well. Hover over the video player, and tap the Click to Unmute button. Before joining FP in 2018, Agrawal worked at CNN for more than a. DOUGHERTY: Alina, I have to ask you, what do you think about that idea? Russia's New General: The architect of the invasion of Ukraine is now President Vladimir V. Putin's third commander in charge of the war. Is there a lot more room to do more there? So the notion that a, quote/unquote, decisive military defeat is going to somehow lead to a chastened or a Russia that is somehow less bellicose and less aggrieved, I thinkwell, I think you need to take a serious look at it. C.V. Starr & Co. with Philip M. Breedlove, Charles A. Kupchan and Alina Polyakova Yeah. And Id also like to ask Phil, even assuming Ukraine has a sort of territorial victory, what does Ukraine need from the West to be strong and viable? Munich Security Conference, Biden Visits Poland, Israels Judiciary Overhaul, and More. supports HTML5 video, Distinguished Professor and CETS Senior Fellow, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Tech;Former Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)(speaking virtually), Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, Professor of International Affairs, Georgetown University, President and Chief Executive Officer, Center for European Policy Analysis; Adjunct Professor of European Studies,Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Adjunct Professor, Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, Georgetown University; CFR Member. And so this is our avenue to force the Russians to shift. It seems to me that this is the crux of the matter. Heres How. And its great to be back here at CFR, as always, for this very timely discussion given the current events that we were just discussing, Jill. The fact is, we had to deploy. And so what is working for Mr. Putin is the war of intimidation, or as we say in military parlance deterrence. Q: Hi. Meanwhile, Kyiv has received a major infusion of military aid from the West in the last three months. Republican lawmakers arent the only ones who brandish the credibility thesis to burnish their hawkish credentials. anging, butRon DeSantis and other leading Republicansare beginning to question whether the United States is prepared to keep it up. And in the long term, the technology, the management expertise, economic partnerships, and probably the most important thing, the markets for hydrocarbons in Europe, are gone. I think the first thing we have to do is determine what we believe happened. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Argument: While the United States and NATO must certainly take into account Russian nuclear capacity, they should respond calmly and not be intimidated.. What will it mean for Chinas economy, defense budget, and foreign policy? Thanks for the. Test yourself on the week of March 11: Saudi Arabia posts big oil profits, a Dutch populist party triumphs, and foreign films make headlines at the Oscars. Imagine a scenario in which, you know, the wars still going on in Ukraine, were in a protracted battle, were still supplyingyou know, policy is relatively the samewere supplying billions and billions in support for Ukraine to maintain the line. Russia has gone from one mobilization to the next, burning through equipment and ammunition faster than it can replace iteven resorting to the recruitment of prisoners to fight its drawn-Show moreout war in Ukraine. Now the question, for you, General Breedlove. DOUGHERTY: I think weve got some sound problem. And to my mind, this year is the critical year. In effect, they kind of are, goes the argument. The White House has tapped Nicholas Berliner to serve as U.S. President Joe Biden's top Russia advisor, putting a career foreign officer in charge of one of Biden's most . China is watching what we do in Ukraine, Blumenthal said during a television interview last year. 32-hour workweek bill reintroduced in Congress: Will it pass? Experts discuss the U.S. policy options available in Ukraine and how the current military situation on the ground affects what the United States should do next to achieve its goal in the region. Before joining FP in 2018, Agrawal worked at CNN for more than a decade in full-time roles spanning three continents, including as the networks New Delhi bureau chief and correspondent. Plus, as always, there will be a glimpse into the reporters notebooks, with off-the-record insights into what Washington is really talking about when it comes to geopolitics. Delivered Friday. THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. November 4, 2022 They dont care how many Russians die in this war. 1967, the Israelis defeated Arab armies. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor and former U.S. And as a consequence, I would focus more on making sure that the Ukraine thats out there, whether its 90 percent or 95 percent or 99 percent or a hundred percent, is ais a viable country. Join FPsRavi Agrawalin conversation with a panel of China experts as they decipher the news from Beijing:Ryan Hassis the former China director at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,Zongyuan Zoe Liuis an FP columnist and fellow for international political economy at the Council on Foreign Relations, andJames Palmeris a deputy editor atForeign Policyand the author of the magazinesChina Briefnewsletter. with Ivan Kanapathy, Bonny Lin and Stephen S. 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Most of the countries of the world are sitting on the fence, right? POLYAKOVA: Can I comment on this very quickly? Havent they shownhasnt Ukraine shown that they actually should be members of NATO? If you couple that with the compactthe Kyiv Security Compact that Secretary General Rasmussen and Yermak have been working on with some kind of realist security guarantees, it seems to me you could have some sort of strong guarantee, and leave Crimea and maybe even the Donbas to a phase two, especially if weif you all are right, that this is the decisive year and a war prolonged beyond this year could get very dicey for Ukraine. NATO is a long-term potential model for security. Because while Putin says now that, hah, the sanctions are not doing anything to Russia, we know that the deficits of the budget are in trillions of rubles and many billions of dollars. Congressional support for this aid has largely been bipartisan and wide-rShow moreanging, butRon DeSantis and other leading Republicansare beginning to question whether the United States is prepared to keep it up. The latest news, analysis, and data from the country each week. with Philip M. Breedlove, Charles A. Kupchan and Alina Polyakova Chinese leaders decisions relating to Taiwan are far more likely to be influenced by the strength and durability of the U.S. military presence in East Asia. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, former U.S. Beyond the headlines, what can the world expect from the convening? And as we learn more and more about what happened in the Black Sea, it looks like that is what actually happened. Our response was inadequate to task. And then we also can take questions virtually. And I think its this year the war has to end. Is it conceivable to me that the next president of France could be Le Pen if things continue on their current course? THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. Is it reallydo you agree that thatsthose are the two possible ways this can go, you know, danger of escalation but in fearing escalation the war can be driven on forever? The Long War in Ukraine, With Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe. This is in addition to the request from Ukrainian leaders for A-10 and MIG-29 aircraft to help Ukrainians defend themselves, which we also strongly support, the group later added. Mr. Putins army is failing him in the field. And, you know, there is, to pick up from what Trudy was talking about, there is a question. Nadia Schadlow. This isnt just an isolated conflict. February 14, 2023, Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland Foreign policy expert on the impact of President Biden's Ukraine visit Suzanne Loftus, a research fellow for the Quincy Institute's Eurasia program, joins CBS News' Lilia Luciano to discuss the . Escalation(clears throat)excuse mehas been a very serious issue for the Biden administration, and we all know kind of that debateyou know, nuclear weapons, World War III, et cetera. This would create direct military conflict between the U.S. and Russia, inching the world closer to a nuclear war. That is a far more dangerous scenario, to me, than what we are in today. In a March 20 response, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Konstantin. This years meeting is the first since the end of zero-COVID restrictions; itsalso an opportunity to get an inside look into the Chineseleaderships fears and priorities. They have tried to swallow Ukraine whole and topple the regime in Kyiv. For instance, in Calculating Credibility, a seminal work on the subject, Dartmouth University professor Daryl Press concludes that leaders assess a nations credibility on whether it has the interest and power to deliver on a threatnot on what it did in the past in a completely unrelated context. The outflow of millions of refugees has placed a strain on neighboring countries. So given that that objective has been blocked, I think we need to have, as I said, a sober conversation about where we would like to see this conflict go, and where it might end. Russia can mount another invasion from the north, or from Belarus, or from wherever they want to. China So when were talking about should the Ukrainians have the ability to attack Crimea, its their territory. Economic sanctions are part of that. The experts argued that Ukraines allies should also take additional steps to increase economic pressure on Russia, like taking measures to limit the revenue Russia receives from oil sales through a European Union embargo or EU tariffs on Russian sales.
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